Some questions about Minsk 2

So the cease-fire has started and is ‘more or less’ being kept by both sides, although there is sporadic gunfire around the besieged troops in Debaltsevo.  Who started it, and who responded is anybody’s guess.  All I can say is that I can’t see that the pro-russian forces had any incentive to start, which the Kiev forces did, but that is not conclusive.

However, to return to the title of this post, one must ask why none of the big four at the Minsk 2 talks signed the agreement?  And why, when a deal – however fragile – has been reached, why choose this time to add new sanctions against Russia?  And if Europe has agreed to these sanctions, and they are not just being discussed, why did Greece not object?

Here are some suggestions.

It is my belief that the initiative by Merkel and Hollande in going to Moscow was a case of sheer terror, terror that the Empire of Chaos in the west was leading up to a war in Europe, the third one in a century, a war in which the Empire itself would stand on the wings and watch Europe burn, coming in at the last minute to tidy up and ‘rescue’ Europe from itself.  It has long been obvious that the Empire has no respect for Europe, which it considers, with some merit, as its vassal state, and is now in the process of putting an end once and for all to any aspirations Europe may have or have had to  play a significant role in world events.

The Empire orchestrated the coup d’état in the Ukraine, and was presumably not at all pleased that Merkel and Hollande might be getting ideas beyond their station and trying to halt the civil war which is raging.  Thus Merkel, who must have been tired from all the battles she is fighting on so many fronts, was nonetheless summoned to Washington to be reprimanded and given her instructions for the big meeting with Putin.

If I were in Merkel’s shoes I would notwithstanding be extremely worried about the situation in Europe, not least as a majority of her landsmen are against annoying Russia  any more than she has already done, and very much against another war on the continent.  And this may be the reason why neither she nor Hollande signed the Minsk 2 agreement.  They might have tipped Poroshenko off, or he might have seen the writing on the wall by himself, and so he stayed away from the pen.  With all this shyness in the room, there is no chance Putin is going to pull out his biro either, and so this agreement was signed by none of the leaders.  Not that that is particularly significant, since, as others have pointed out, there is not a lot of believable meat in the agreement anyway, and the chances of an effective cease-fire are of the same order of magnitude as that the sun will come up in the west tomorrow, and set in the east.  Still we yokels on the ground can hope.

And the sanctions?  Well, the Empire is hell bent on having war in Europe, a war which, like the previous ones in Irak, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria and now the Ukraine, will turn Europe into a pile of rubble.  So throw a little extra petrol on the fire and see if one can get Putin to react.  My goodness, have they misread that man!  If he reacts to the new sanctions it will not be by getting involved in the Ukraine.  He will merely impose some more sanctions back on Europe and the Empire of Chaos, sanctions which this time will really hurt.  How about closing Russian airspace?  Or think, if he only imposes them on the Empire, and lets Europe off the hook.  That would distress the Empire no end and maybe drive an even bigger wedge between Europe and the US than the one the US is doing by itself.

As to why Greece has not rejected the new sanctions, this makes me suspect that they are merely at the proposal stage as yet, and have not come up for ratification by European leaders.  When they do, I think you will find that Greece will have its say, even if it is only to have an extra lever on the intractable EU/ECB part of the troika.

And maybe, just maybe, Merkel and Hollande can persuade the other European heads of state, apart of course from Cameron of the UK, that the time has come to make Custer’s last stand against the Empire of Chaos.

© James Wilde 2015